Storylines approach
Climate models agree broadly on large-scale changes such as Arctic warming and sea ice loss, but projecting exactly how and where these changes will unfold at the regional level remains deeply uncertain. This is largely because the dynamical components of the climate system, such as atmospheric circulation, are far harder to predict than thermodynamic responses like temperature rise.
SnowPI uses Physical Climate Storylines to navigate this challenge.
Rather than relying on abstract probabilities, storylines explore plausible futures by examining realistic combinations of climate processes and their consequences for society and ecosystems.
They also allow researchers and stakeholders to work backwards from a particular vulnerability or decision point, exploring how different futures might affect it.
SnowPI builds on storylines developed through
the PolarRES project,
which co-designed them with impact modellers to ensure they are directly relevant to assessments of snow, glaciers, ice sheets and permafrost.
These include two Arctic storylines and two Antarctic storylines drawn from the latest CMIP6 projections, each representing a distinct and physically plausible combination of climate processes.
The approach provides a clearer framework for understanding uncertainty, helping scientists make better use of regional climate information while communicating the limitations of that information transparently.